Article by @JedWexler

Interview by Kristin Young 

We were thrilled to speak recently with author and FMG Member Kevin Maney about his latest book “The Two-Second Advantage: How We Succeed by Predicting the Future…Just Enough,” (co-authored with Vivek Ranadive).  The book recently spent several weeks on the NY Times bestseller list.

Maney is a long-time business and technology journalist – he has written for USA Today, Fortune, Fast Company, Portfolio, and The Atlantic, and authored five books. FMG’s Kristin Young talked with Maney (interview below) about The Two-Second Advantage, fashion, and technology. 

In 2005, Malcolm Gladwell explored human intuition in ‘Blink’, in which he writes, “the power of knowing, in that first two seconds, is not a gift given magically to a fortunate few, it is an ability that we can all cultivate for ourselves.”  Maney’s book takes that concept a step further. 

According to his book, developing predictive talent, teams, and brands requires a desire to push past what’s comfortable, yet a willingness to do the same things over and over again in order to reinforce the neuro-ability essential to generating accurate, complex predictions. 

That said, there are those talented individuals that always seem to have an inherent feel for making correct predictions about what’s going to happen (i.e. Steve Jobs, Wayne Gretzky) – and do it a little better and faster than most of the population.  Neuroscientists are just coming to understand how these people’s brains work.

In a new twist, neuroscientists are now working with computer scientists to build brain-like “talent” into technology – which, needless to say, may just be the holy grail of business and creative entrepreneurship in the digital space. And that is already helping entities such as fashion brands and retailers more accurately predict events in the market. 

The FMG Interview: Kevin Maney

FMG: So, talent is mostly about making very good predictions?

KM: Right. It’s instinct, but it’s based on taking in massive amounts of information over a long time, and using that data to build a very efficient mental model of how things work. Then when something happens, a talented person can run it through that model and instantly know what it means and what’s about to happen — while the rest of us are searching through our brains to try to put the pieces together.

FMG: What’s an example?

KM: In the book, we look at a range of talented people. In sports, Wayne Gretzky had such an amazing model of hockey in his head, he knew what was about to happen in a game before anyone else. Boston’s mayor, Tom Menino, can do the same for something that happens in the city. This guy Mystery, who bills himself as the world’s greatest pick-up artist, is super-predictive when talking to a woman. That’s his talent.

FMG: And this applies in the fashion world?

KM: A great designer no doubt has that kind of mental model of fashion, and can see something and instantly predict where fashion is heading. But this idea of predictiveness gets, I think, really interesting when applied to companies in the fashion universe.

FMG: How so?

KM: You can see early versions already. Take Macy’s. It has a rewards card — customers swipe it when they make a purchase. Now Macy’s is starting to use that data to build predictive models of its most loyal customers. The store will know that if a certain person buys jeans and socks, chances are high that she wants a cardigan sweater. Macy’s is trying out ways to capitalize on that by, perhaps, offering her a deal on a sweater right at check-out.

FMG: Where is this heading?

KM: If Macy’s or any retailer can keep gathering data and perfect a computer model of the market and of customers — it could start to predict on the fly, as things happen, like a talented person. The company could see a slight shift in buying, and know exactly where customers are heading in the next few minutes — not next year.

FMG: And companies are actually getting into this stuff?

KM: Oh yeah. Sam’s Club is deep into building predictive systems, and has gotten so good at predicting what an individual customer will buy, it sometimes scares the customer. Companies across industries are going this way. Caesar’s Entertainment, for casinos. Southwest Airlines. Reliance Communications, a cell phone service in India. Eventually companies are going to need this the way they now need databases and spreadsheets.

FMG: What might this mean for start-ups in fashion?

KM: This kind of brain-like, predictive computing is going to be a big change in technology and what technology can do. Whenever that happens, it opens up all kinds of opportunities for innovation. Some smart designer might use it to know exactly what will work in the market. And you already see some companies like EDITD that are starting to supply predictive technology and data on fashion. Our book suggests that a whole dramatic wave of innovation is coming.

FMG: But the book isn’t just about technology — it’s also about people and talent. For instance, what are “Ones” and “Twos?”

KM: In the book, venture capitalist Ben Horowitz talks about how he sees CEOs as either Ones or Twos. Ones build these mental models - like a Gretzky - and constantly react instinctively to events. They don’t do studies or ask for data. They just know. Twos are more careful. They want data before making decisions. They don’t trust their gut — probably because they don’t have one. Steve Jobs is a One. Mickey Drexler [CEO of J.Crew] is a One. The Ones make great CEOs. Twos make great COOs.

FMG: Wait — are we about to make computers that can be Ones? Computers that can be creative?

KM: Not in any foreseeable future. Creativity and the human brain are so complex — we’re not going to see machines that work just like brains. But technologists are learning from how brains and talent work to build a more interesting model of computing. That’s a big difference.

FMG: You mention Steve Jobs — does the iPhone’s Siri fit into this? Or the IBM computer that won on Jeopardy?

KM: In certain ways yes; in a lot of ways, no. Siri is software built on rules — if this, then that. It’s a lot of very complicated rules processed unimaginably quickly, but it all comes down to Siri thinking, “If asked what I’m wearing, answer, ‘Why does everybody ask that?’” The Jeopardy computer worked the same way, with even more complexity and greater speed. Still, both systems are built to learn a little bit. They start to modify their own rules based on what’s happening. It’s the very outer edges of building more brain-like computers.

FMG: Any last thoughts about our brains?

KM: An uplifting message in the book is that talent isn’t just great DNA — a person can build it, at any time of life. It takes thousands of hours and a lot of dedication, but it can be done. Mystery was not naturally a great pick-up artist. He built that talent over time.

Click image/link below to Purchase Kevin’s book*

*FMG has an affiliate relationship with amazon and will receive a small % of any book sales from this link – which goes to support our staff.  Tks!